Coral reefs feed millions of people worldwide, provide coastal protection and generate billions of dollars annually in tourism revenue(1). The underlying architecture of a reef is a biogenic carbonate structure that accretes over many years of active biomineralizat ion by calcifying organisms, including corals and algae(2). Ocean acidification poses a chronic threat to coral reefs by reducing the saturation state of the aragonite mineral of which coral skeletons are primarily composed, and lowering the concentration of carbonate ions required to maintain the carbonate reef. Reduced calcification, coupled with increased bioerosion and dissolution(3), may drive reefs into a state of net loss this century(4). Our ability to predict changes in ecosystem function and associated services ultimately hinges on our understanding of community- and ecosystem-scale responses. Past research has primarily focused on the responses of individual species rather than evaluating more complex, community-level responses. Here we use an in situ carbon dioxide enrichment experiment to quantify the net calcification response of a coral reef flat to acidification. We present an estimate of community-scale calcification sensitivity to ocean acidification that is, to our knowledge, the first to be based on a controlled experiment in the natural environment. This estimate provides evidence that near-future reductions in the aragonite saturation state will compromise the ecosystem function of coral reefs.

Aerosol-cloud radiative effects are determined and quantified in simulations of deep open-cell stratocumuli observed during the VAMOS Ocean-Cloud-Atmosphere-Land Study Regional Experiment (VOCALS-REx) campaign off the west coast of Chile. The cloud deck forms in a boundary layer 1.5 km deep, with cell sizes reaching 50 km in diameter. Global databases of ship tracks suggest that these linear structures are seldom found in boundary layers this deep. Here, we quantify the changes in cloud radiative properties to a continuous aerosol point source moving along a fixed emission line releasing 1017 particles per second. We show that a spatially coherent cloud perturbation is not evident along the emission line. Yet our model simulates an increase in domain-mean all-sky albedo of 0.05, corresponding to a diurnally averaged cloud radiative effect of 20 Wm(-2), given the annual mean solar insolation at the VOCALS-REx site. Therefore, marked changes in cloud radiative properties in precipitating deep open cells may be driven by anthropogenic near-surface aerosol perturbations, such as those generated by ships.

Many studies have linked mass extinction events with the catastrophic effects of large-body impacts and flood-basalt eruptions, sometimes as competing explanations. We find that the ages of at least 10 out of a total of 11 documented extinction events over the last 260 Myr (12 out of 13 if we include two lesser extinction events) coincide, within errors, with the best-known ages of either a large impact crater (>= 70 km diameter) or a continental flood-basalt eruption. The null hypothesis that this could occur by chance can be rejected with very high confidence (> 99.999%). The ages of large impact craters correlate with recognized extinction events at similar to 36 (two impacts), 66, 145 and 215 Myr ago (and possibly an event at similar to 168 Myr ago), and the ages of continental flood basalts correlate with extinctions at 66, similar to 94, similar to 116, 183, 201, 252 and 259 Myr ago (and possibly at similar to 133 Myr ago). Furthermore, at least 7 periods of widespread anoxia in the oceans of the last 260 Myr coincide with the ages of flood-basalt eruptions (with 99.999% confidence), and are coeval with extinctions, suggesting causal connections. These statistical relationships argue that most mass extinction events are related to climatic catastrophes produced by the largest impacts and large-volume continental flood-basalt eruptions.

What causes recurrent mass extinctions of life? We find that the ages of 10 of the 11 well-documented extinction episodes of the last 260 m.y. show correlations, at very high confidence (>99.99%), with the ages of the largest impact craters or the ages of massive continental flood-basalt eruptions. The four largest craters (>= 100 km diameter, impact energies >= 3 x 10(7) Mt trinitrotoluene [TNT]) can be linked with recognized extinction events at 36, 66, 145, and 215 Ma, and with stratigraphic distal impact debris correlative with the extinctions. The ages of 7 out of 11 major flood-basalt episodes can be correlated with extinction events at 66, 94, ca. 120, 183, 201, 252, and 260 Ma. All seven flood-basalt-extinction co-events have coincident volcanogenic mercury anomalies in the stratigraphic record, closely linking the extinctions to the volcanism. Furthermore, the seven major periods of widespread anoxia in the oceans of the last 260 m.y. are significantly correlated (>99.99%) with the ages of the flood-basalt-extinction events, supporting a causal connection through volcanism-induced climate warming. Over Phanerozoic time (the last 541 m.y.), the six "major" mass extinctions (>= 40% extinction of marine genera) are all correlated with the ages of flood-basalt episodes, and stratigraphically with related volcanogenic mercury anomalies. In only one case, the end of the Cretaceous (66 Ma), is there an apparent coincidence of a "major" mass-extinction event with both a very large crater (Chicxulub) and a continental flood-basalt eruption (the Deccan Traps).

Carbon fluxes on coral reefs (net community production and net community calcification) aggregate the collective activity of all coral reef community members. This integrated approach provides powerful community-level insights, but is unable to resolve the finer-scale contributions of different reef functional groups to the community-scale rates. Tools are required to disaggregate the community-scale approaches and evaluate the performance of co-existing reef functional groups. Such assessments are necessary to improve forecasts of coral reef responses to global and local environmental change. We present results from a coral reef field study on One Tree Island reef in the Great Barrier Reef, off northeastern Australia, in September-October 2016 where we combined observations of total alkalinity, dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), and the stable isotopic composition of dissolved inorganic carbon (delta C-13(DIC)) to estimate carbon isotopic fractionation during organicmatter formation. Portions of the reef with greater abundance of non-calcifying algae fractionated DIC similar to 5 parts per thousand more (stronger preference for C-12) during organic metabolism than did portions of the reef with a greater abundance of calcifiers. These results were consistent across a wide range of assumed isotopic fractionation factors for net calcification. We attribute the observed differences in carbon isotopic fractionation to the metabolic activities of the ecological community underlying each section of the reef, rather than to environmental factors such as light availability or water temperature. The patterns in carbon isotopic fractionation were generally consistent with inferred ratios of calcification to primary production in each reef zone, giving further confidence to our inference that differences in carbon isotopic fractionation may be related to differences in the ecological community on small spatial scales.

Ocean acidification threatens many marine organisms, especially marine calcifiers. The only global-scale solution to ocean acidification remains rapid reduction in CO2 emissions. Nevertheless, interest in localized mitigation strategies has grown rapidly because of the recognized threat ocean acidification imposes on natural communities, including ones important to humans. Protection of seagrass meadows has been considered as a possible approach for localized mitigation of ocean acidification due to their large standing stocks of organic carbon and high productivity. Yet much work remains to constrain the magnitudes and timescales of potential buffering effects from seagrasses. We developed a biogeochemical box model to better understand the potential for a temperate seagrass meadow to locally mitigate the effects of ocean acidification. Then we parameterized the model using data from Tomales Bay, an inlet on the coast of California, USA which supports a major oyster farming industry. We conducted a series of month-long model simulations to characterize processes that occur during summer and winter. We found that average pH in the seagrass meadows was typically within 0.04 units of the pH of the primary source waters into the meadow, although we did find occasional periods (hours) when seagrass metabolism may modify the pH by up to +/- 0.2 units. Tidal phasing relative to the diel cycle modulates localized pH buffering within the seagrass meadow such that maximum buffering occurs during periods of the year with midday low tides. Our model results suggest that seagrass metabolism in Tomales Bay would not provide long-term ocean acidification mitigation. However, we emphasize that our model results may not hold in meadows where assumptions about depth-averaged net production and seawater residence time within the seagrass meadow differ from our model assumptions. Our modeling approach provides a framework that is easily adaptable to other seagrass meadows in order to evaluate the extent of their individual buffering capacities. Regardless of their ability to buffer ocean acidification, seagrass meadows maintain many critically important ecosystem goods and services that will be increasingly important as humans increasingly affect coastal ecosystems.

The distribution of anthropogenic aerosols' climate effects depends on the geographic distribution of the aerosols themselves. Yet many scientific and policy discussions ignore the role of emission location when evaluating aerosols' climate impacts. Here, we present new climate model results demonstrating divergent climate responses to a fixed amount and composition of aerosol-emulating China's present-day emissions-emitted from 8 key geopolitical regions. The aerosols' global-mean cooling effect is fourteen times greater when emitted from the highest impact emitting region (Western Europe) than from the lowest (India). Further, radiative forcing, a widely used climate response proxy, fails as an effective predictor of global-mean cooling for national-scale aerosol emissions in our simulations; global-mean forcing-to-cooling efficacy differs fivefold depending on emitting region. This suggests that climate accounting should differentiate between aerosols emitted from different countries and that aerosol emissions' evolving geographic distribution will impact the global-scale magnitude and spatial distribution of climate change.

Arctic amplification is a consequence of surface albedo, cloud, and temperature feedbacks, as well as poleward oceanic and atmospheric heat transport. However, the relative impact of changes in sea surface temperature (SST) patterns and ocean heat flux sourced from different regions on Arctic temperatures are not well constrained. We modify ocean-to-atmosphere heat fluxes in the North Pacific and North Atlantic in a climate model to determine the sensitivity of Arctic temperatures to zonal heterogeneities in northern hemisphere SST patterns. Both positive and negative ocean heat flux perturbations from the North Pacific result in greater global and Arctic surface air temperature anomalies than equivalent magnitude perturbations from the North Atlantic; a response we primarily attribute to greater moisture flux from the subpolar extratropics to Arctic. Enhanced poleward latent heat and moisture transport drive sea-ice retreat and low-cloud formation in the Arctic, amplifying Arctic surface warming through the ice-albedo feedback and infrared warming effect of low clouds. Our results imply that global climate sensitivity may be dependent on patterns of ocean heat flux in the northern hemisphere.

The social cost of carbon (SCC) is a commonly employed metric of the expected economic damages from carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Although useful in an optimal policy context, a world-level approach obscures the heterogeneous geography of climate damage and vast differences in country-level contributions to the global SCC, as well as climate and socio-economic uncertainties, which are larger at the regional level. Here we estimate country-level contributions to the SCC using recent climate model projections, empirical climate-driven economic damage estimations and socio-economic projections. Central specifications show high global SCC values (median, US$417 per tonne of CO2 (tCO(2)); 66% confidence intervals, US$177-805 per tCO(2)) and a country-level SCC that is unequally distributed. However, the relative ranking of countries is robust to different specifications: countries that incur large fractions of the global cost consistently include India, China, Saudi Arabia and the United States.