Natural gas has been suggested as a "bridge fuel" in the transition from coal to a near-zero emission energy system. However, the expansion of natural gas risks a delay in the introduction of near-zero emission energy systems, possibly offsetting the potential climate benefits of a gas-for-coal substitution. We use a schematic climate model to estimate CO2 and CH4 emissions from integrated energy systems and the resulting changes in global warming over various timeframes. Then we evaluate conditions under which delayed deployment of near-zero emission systems would result in loss of all net climate benefit (if any) from using natural gas as a bridge. Considering only physical climate system effects, we find that there is potential for delays in deployment of near-zero-emission technologies to offset all climate benefits from replacing coal energy systems with natural gas energy systems, especially if natural gas leakage is high, the natural gas energy system is inefficient, and the climate change metric emphasizes decadal time scale changes. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Solar geoengineering has been proposed as a potential means to counteract anthropogenic climate change, yet it is unknown how such climate intervention might affect the Earth's climate on the millennial time scale. Here we use the HadCM3L model to conduct a 1000year sunshade geoengineering simulation in which solar irradiance is uniformly reduced by 4% to approximately offset global mean warming from an abrupt quadrupling of atmospheric CO2. During the 1000year period, modeled global climate, including temperature, hydrological cycle, and ocean circulation of the high-CO2 simulation departs substantially from that of the control preindustrial simulation, whereas the climate of the geoengineering simulation remains much closer to that of the preindustrial state with little drift. The results of our study do not support the hypothesis that nonlinearities in the climate system would cause substantial drift in the climate system if solar geoengineering was to be deployed on the timescale of a millennium.

Ocean acidification has the potential to adversely affect marine calcifying organisms, with substantial ocean ecosystem impacts projected over the 21st century. Characterizing the in situ sensitivity of calcifying ecosystems to natural variability in carbonate chemistry may improve our understanding of the long-term impacts of ocean acidification. We explore the potential for intensive temporal sampling to isolate the influence of carbonate chemistry on community calcification rates of a coral reef and compare the ratio of organic to inorganic carbon production to previous studies at the same location. Even with intensive temporal sampling, community calcification displays only a weak dependence on carbonate chemistry variability. However, across three years of sampling, the ratio of organic to inorganic carbon production is highly consistent. Although further work is required to quantify the spatial variability associated with such ratios, this suggests that these measurements have the potential to indicate the response of coral reefs to ongoing disturbance, ocean acidification, and climate change.

Nearly 17% of people in an international survey said they believed the existence of a secret large-scale atmospheric program (SLAP) to be true or partly true. SLAP is commonly referred to as 'chemtrails' or 'covert geoengineering', and has led to a number of websites purported to show evidence of widespread chemical spraying linked to negative impacts on human health and the environment. To address these claims, we surveyed two groups of experts-atmospheric chemists with expertize in condensation trails and geochemists working on atmospheric deposition of dust and pollution-to scientifically evaluate for the first time the claims of SLAP theorists. Results show that 76 of the 77 scientists (98.7%) that took part in this study said they had not encountered evidence of a SLAP, and that the data cited as evidence could be explained through other factors, including well-understood physics and chemistry associated with aircraft contrails and atmospheric aerosols. Our goal is not to sway those already convinced that there is a secret, large-scale spraying program-who often reject counter-evidence as further proof of their theories-but rather to establish a source of objective science that can inform public discourse.

Projections of ocean acidification have often been based on ocean carbon cycle models that do not represent deep-sea sedimentation and terrestrial weathering. Here we use an Earth system model of intermediate complexity to quantify the effect of sedimentation and weathering on projections of ocean acidification under an intensive CO2 emission scenario that releases 5000 Pg C after year 2000. In our simulations, atmospheric CO2 reaches a peak concentration of 2123 ppm near year 2300 with a maximum reduction in surface pH of 0.8. Consideration of deep-sea sedimentation and terrestrial weathering has negligible effect on these peak changes. Only after several millenniums, sedimentation and weathering feedbacks substantially affect projected ocean acidification. Ten thousand years from today, in the constant-alkalinity simulation, surface pH is reduced by similar to 0.7 with 95% of the polar oceans undersaturated with respect to calcite, and no ocean has a calcite saturation horizon (CSH) that is deeper than 1000 m. With the consideration of sediment feedback alone, surface pH is reduced by similar to 0.5 with 35% of the polar oceans experiencing calcite undersaturation, and 8% global ocean has a CSH deeper than 1000 m. With the addition of weathering feedback, depending on the weathering parameterizations, surface pH is reduced by 0.2-0.4 with no polar oceans experiencing calcite undersaturation, and 30-80% ocean has a CSH that is deeper than 1000 m. Our results indicate that deep-sea sedimentation and terrestrial weathering play an important role in long-term ocean acidification, but have little effect on mitigating ocean acidification in the coming centuries.

Pseudomonas aeruginosa is a significant threat in healthcare settings where it deploys a wide host of virulence factors to cause disease. Many virulence-related phenotypes such as pyocyanin production, biofilm formation, and twitching motility have been implicated in causing disease in a number of hosts. In this study, we investigate these three virulence factors in a collection of 22 clinical strains isolated from blood stream infections. Despite the fact that all 22 strains caused disease and came from the same body site of different patients, they show significant variability in assays for each of the three specific phenotypes examined. There was no significant correlation between the strength of the three phenotypes across our collection, suggesting that they can be independently modulated. Furthermore, strains deficient in each of the virulence-associated phenotypes examined could be identified. To understand the genetic basis of this variability we sequenced the genomes of the 22 strains. We found that the majority of genes responsible for pyocyanin production, biofilm formation, and twitching motility were highly conserved among the strains despite their phenotypic variability, suggesting that the phenotypic variability is likely due to regulatory changes. Our findings thus demonstrate that no one lab-assayed phenotype of pyocyanin production, biofilm production, and twitching motility is necessary for a P. aeruginosa strain to cause blood stream infection and that additional factors may be needed to fully predict what strains will lead to specific human diseases.

In this paper, using the fully coupled NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM1.0.4), we investigate the relative importance of CO2-fertilization, climate warming, anthropogenic nitrogen deposition, and land use and land cover change (LULCC) for terrestrial carbon uptake during the historical period (1850-2005). In our simulations, between the beginning and end of this period, we find an increase in global net primary productivity (NPP) on land of about 4 PgCyr(-1) (8.2 %) with a contribution of 2.3 PgCyr(-1) from CO2-fertilization and 2.0 PgCyr(-1) from nitrogen deposition. Climate warming also causes NPP to increase by 0.35 PgCyr(-1) but LULCC causes a decline of 0.7 PgCyr(-1). These results indicate that the recent increase in vegetation productivity is most likely driven by CO2 fertilization and nitrogen deposition. Further, we find that this configuration of CESM projects that the global terrestrial ecosystem has been a net source of carbon during 1850-2005 (release of 45.1 +/- 2.4 PgC), largely driven by historical LULCC related CO2 fluxes to the atmosphere. During the recent three decades (early 1970s to early 2000s), however, our model simulations project that the terrestrial ecosystem acts as a sink, taking up about 10 PgC mainly due to CO2 fertilization and nitrogen deposition. Our results are in good qualitative agreement with recent studies that indicate an increase in vegetation production and water use efficiency in the satellite era and that the terrestrial ecosystem has been a net sink for carbon in recent decades.

Evidence from the 100-most cited papers ever published in ERL indicates the disproportionately large scientific impact of small groups of authors. The median number of authors on these 100 most-cited papers was 3.5, and 72 out of the 100 most cited papers had 5 or fewer authors. This indicates that small groups of authors often produce the work with the greatest impact, even in an inter-disciplinary setting. This suggests that it may be wise to institute policy changes that discourage inflation of author lists and that encourage the funding of research conducted by single investigators and small groups of researchers.

Understanding the temporal dynamics of present thermal and pH exposure on coral reefs is crucial for elucidating reef response to future global change. Diel ranges in temperature and carbonate chemistry parameters coupled with seasonal changes in the mean conditions define periods during the year when a reef habitat is exposed to anomalous thermal and/or pH exposure. Anomalous conditions are defined as values that exceed an empirically estimated threshold for each variable. We present a 200-day time series from June through December 2010 of carbonate chemistry and environmental parameters measured on the Heron Island reef flat. These data reveal that aragonite saturation state, pH, and pCO(2) were primarily modulated by biologically-driven changes in dissolved organic carbon (DIC) and total alkalinity (TA), rather than salinity and temperature. The largest diel temperature ranges occurred in austral spring, in October (1.5 - 6.6 degrees C) and lowest diel ranges (0.9 - 3.2 degrees C) were observed in July, at the peak of winter. We observed large diel total pH variability, with a maximum range of 7.7 - 8.5 total pH units, with minimum diel average pH values occurring during spring and maximum during fall. As with many other reefs, the nighttime pH minima on the reef flat were far lower than pH values predicted for the open ocean by 2100. DIC and TA both increased from June (end of Fall) to December (end of Spring). Using this high-resolution dataset, we developed exposure metrics of pH and temperature individually for intensity, duration, and severity of low pH and high temperature events, as well as a combined metric. Periods of anomalous temperature and pH exposure were asynchronous on the Heron Island reef flat, which underlines the importance of understanding the dynamics of co-occurrence of multiple stressors on coastal ecosystems.