Lorenzo

Rosa

Proposals for achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 include scaling-up electrolytic hydrogen production, however, this poses technical, economic, and environmental challenges. One such challenge is for policymakers to ensure a sustainable future for the environment including freshwater and land resources while facilitating low-carbon hydrogen production using renewable wind and solar energy. We establish a country-by-country reference scenario for hydrogen demand in 2050 and compare it with land and water availability. Our analysis highlights countries that will be constrained by domestic natural resources to achieve electrolytic hydrogen self-sufficiency in a net-zero target. Depending on land allocation for the installation of solar panels or wind turbines, less than 50% of hydrogen demand in 2050 could be met through a local production without land or water scarcity. Our findings identify potential importers and exporters of hydrogen or, conversely, exporters or importers of industries that would rely on electrolytic hydrogen. The abundance of land and water resources in Southern and Central-East Africa, West Africa, South America, Canada, and Australia make these countries potential leaders in hydrogen export.

The chemical industry is responsible for about 5% of global CO2 emissions and is key to achieving net-zero targets. Decarbonizing this industry, nevertheless, faces particular challenges given the widespread use of carbon-rich raw materials, the need for high-temperature heat, and the complex global value chains. Multiple technology routes are now available for producing chemicals with net-zero CO2 emissions based on biomass, recycling, and carbon capture, utilization, and storage. However, the extent to which these routes are viable with respect to local availability of energy and natural resources remains unclear. In this review, we compare net-zero routes by quantifying their energy, land, and water requirements and the corresponding induced resource scarcity at the country level and further discuss the technical and environmental viability of a net-zero chemical industry. We find that a net-zero chemical industry will require location-specific inte-grated solutions that combine net-zero routes with circular approaches and demand-side measures and might result in a reshaping of the global chemicals trade.

Agriculture accounts for 12% of global annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (7.1 Gt CO2 equivalent), primarily through non-CO2 emissions, namely methane (54%), nitrous oxide (28%), and carbon dioxide (18%). Thus, agriculture contributes significantly to climate change and is significantly impacted by its consequences. Here, we present a review of technologies and innovations for reducing GHG emissions in agriculture. These include decarbonizing on-farm energy use, adopting nitrogen fertilizers management technologies, alternative rice cultivation methods, and feeding and breeding technologies for reducing enteric methane. Combined, all these measures can reduce agricultural GHG emissions by up to 45%. However, residual emissions of 3.8 Gt CO2 equivalent per year will require offsets from carbon dioxide removal technologies to make agriculture net-zero. Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage and enhanced rock weathering are particularly promising techniques, as they can be implemented within agriculture and result in permanent carbon sequestration. While net-zero technologies are technically available, they come with a price premium over the status quo and have limited adoption. Further research and development are needed to make such technologies more affordable and scalable and understand their synergies and wider socio-environmental impacts. With support and incentives, agriculture can transition from a significant emitter to a carbon sink. This study may serve as a blueprint to identify areas where further research and investments are needed to support and accelerate a transition to net-zero emissions agriculture.

Rain-fed agricultural systems, which solely depend on green water (i.e. soil moisture from rainfall), sustain 60% of global food production and are particularly vulnerable to vagaries in temperature and precipitation patterns, which are intensifying due to climate change. Here, using projections of crop water demand and green water availability under warming scenarios, we assess global agricultural green water scarcity-defined when the rainfall regime is unable to meet crop water requirements. With present-day climate conditions, food production for 890 million people is lost because of green water scarcity. Under 1.5°C and 3°C warming-the global warming projected from the current climate targets and business as usual policies-green water scarcity will affect global crop production for 1.23 and 1.45 billion people, respectively. If adaptation strategies were to be adopted to retain more green water in the soil and reduce evaporation, we find that food production loss from green water scarcity would decrease to 780 million people. Our results show that appropriate green water management strategies have the potential to adapt agriculture to green water scarcity and promote global food security.

By synthetically producing nitrogen fertilizers from ammonia (NH3), the Haber-Bosch process has been feeding humanity for more than one hundred years. However, current NH3 production relies on fossil fuels, and is energy and carbon intensive. This commits humanity to emissions levels not compatible with climate goals and commits agricultural production to fossil fuels dependency. Here, we quantify food and energy implications of transitioning nitrogen fertilizers to net-zero CO2 emissions. We find that 1.07 billion people are fed from food produced from imported nitrogen fertilizers. An additional 710 million people are fed from imported natural gas feedstocks used for fertilizers production, meaning that 1.78 billion people per year are fed from imports of either fertilizers or natural gas. These findings highlight the reliance of global food production on trading and fossil fuels, hence its vulnerability to supply and energy shocks. However, alternative routes to achieve net-zero emissions in NH3 production exist, which are based on carbon capture and storage, electrification, and biomass. These routes comply with climate targets while mitigating the risks associated with food security. Yet, they require more land, energy, and water than business-as-usual production, exacerbating land and water scarcity and the use of limited natural resources. Transitioning fertilizers to net-zero emissions can contribute to climate and food security goals, although water, land, and energy trade-offs should be considered.

Providing affordable and nutritious food to a growing and increasingly affluent global population requires multifaceted approaches to target supply and demand aspects. On the supply side, expanding irrigation is key to increase future food production, yet associated needs for storing water and implications of providing that water storage, remain unknown. Here, we quantify biophysical potentials for storage-fed sustainable irrigation-irrigation that neither depletes freshwater resources nor expands croplands but requires water to be stored before use-and study implications for food security and infrastructure. We find that water storage is crucial for future food systems because 460 km(3)/yr of sustainable blue water, enough to grow food for 1.15 billion people, can only be used for irrigation after storage. Even if all identified future dams were to contribute water to irrigation, water stored in dammed reservoirs could only supply 209 +/- 50 km(3)/yr to irrigation and grow food for 631 +/- 145 million people. In the face of this gap and the major socioecologic externalities from future dams, our results highlight limits of gray infrastructure for future irrigation and urge to increase irrigation efficiency, change to less water-intensive cropping systems, and deploy alternative storage solutions at scale.