Climate change is causing major changes to marine ecosystems globally, with ocean acidification of particular concern for coral reefs. Using a 200 d in situ carbon dioxide enrichment study on Heron Island, Australia, we simulated future ocean acidification conditions, and found reduced pH led to a drastic decline in net calcification of living corals to no net growth, and accelerated disintegration of dead corals. Net calcification declined more severely than in previous studies due to exposure to the natural community of bioeroding organisms in this in situ study and to a longer experimental duration. Our data suggest that reef flat corals reach net dissolution at an aragonite saturation state (Omega(AR)) of 2.3 (95% confidence interval: 1.8-2.8) with 100% living coral cover and at Omega(AR)> 3.5 with 30% living coral cover. This model suggests that areas of the reef with relatively low coral mortality, where living coral cover is high, are likely to be resistant to carbon dioxide-induced reef dissolution.

In this study, using idealized step-forcing simulations, we examine the effective radiative forcing of CH4 relative to that of CO2 and compare the effects of CH4 and CO2 forcing on the climate system. A tenfold increase in CH4 concentration in the NCAR CAM5 climate model produces similar long term global mean surface warming (similar to 1.7 K) as a one-third increase in CO2 concentration. However, the radiative forcing estimated for CO2 using the prescribed-SST method is similar to 81% that of CH4, indicating that the efficacy of CH4 forcing is similar to 0.81. This estimate is nearly unchanged when the CO2 physiological effect is included in our simulations. Further, for the same long-term global mean surface warming, we simulate a smaller precipitation increase in the CH4 case compared to the CO2 case. This is because of the fast adjustment processesprecipitation reduction in the CH4 case is larger than that of the CO2 case. This is associated with a relatively more stable atmosphere and larger atmospheric radiative forcing in the CH4 case which occurs because of near-infrared absorption by CH4 in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. Within a month after an increase in CH4, this shortwave heating results in a temperature increase of similar to 0.8 K in the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere. In contrast, within a month after a CO2 increase, longwave cooling results in a temperature decrease of similar to 3 K in the stratosphere and a small change in the upper troposphere. These fast adjustments in the lower stratospheric and upper tropospheric temperature, along with the adjustments in clouds in the troposphere, influence the effective radiative forcing and the fast precipitation response. These differences in fast climate adjustments also produce differences in the climate states from which the slow response begins to evolve and hence they are likely associated with differing feedbacks. We also find that the tropics and subtropics are relatively warmer in the CH4 case for the same global mean surface warming because of a larger longwave clear-sky and shortwave cloud forcing over these regions in the CH4 case. Further investigation using a multi-model intercomparison framework would permit an assessment of the robustness of our results.

Reduction of surface temperatures of the planet by injecting sulfate aerosols in the stratosphere has been suggested as an option to reduce the amount of human-induced climate warming. Several previous studies have shown that for a specified amount of injection, aerosols injected at a higher altitude in the stratosphere would produce more cooling because aerosol sedimentation would take longer. In this study, we isolate and assess the sensitivity of stratospheric aerosol radiative forcing and the resulting climate change to the altitude of the aerosol layer. We study this by prescribing a specified amount of sulfate aerosols, of a size typical of what is produced by volcanoes, distributed uniformly at different levels in the stratosphere. We find that stratospheric sulfate aerosols are more effective in cooling climate when they reside higher in the stratosphere. We explain this sensitivity in terms of effective radiative forcing: volcanic aerosols heat the stratospheric layers where they reside, altering stratospheric water vapor content, tropospheric stability, and clouds, and consequently the effective radiative forcing. We show that the magnitude of the effective radiative forcing is larger when aerosols are prescribed at higher altitudes and the differences in radiative forcing due to fast adjustment processes can account for a substantial part of the dependence of the amount of cooling on aerosol altitude. These altitude effects would be additional to dependences on aerosol microphysics, transport, and sedimentation, which are outside the scope of this study. The cooling effectiveness of stratospheric sulfate aerosols likely increases with the altitude of the aerosol layer both because aerosols higher in the stratosphere have larger effective radiative forcing and because they have higher stratospheric residence time; these two effects are likely to be of comparable importance.

This repository stores database and codes used to generate results in the paper.

This repository stores database and codes used to generate results in the paper.

The climate effects of anthropogenic aerosols have masked some of the warming induced by GHGs(1) along with some impacts of that warming(2). These temperature effects may be beneficial but are almost certainly overwhelmed by aerosols' negative health impacts(3). Recent analyses of economic impacts have concluded that warming harms economies in warm climates, but provides economic benefits in cold climates(4). Here we investigate whether aerosol-induced cooling would have a positive effect on less wealthy economies in hotter regions and a negative effect on wealthier economies in colder regions. Climate simulations over the historical period both with and without anthropogenic aerosol emissions, using a fully coupled ocean and atmosphere climate model, indicate that in year 2010 anthropogenic aerosol emissions were cooling the Earth by 0.72 +/- 0.02 degrees C relative to a scenario without such emissions. Due to opposing economic impacts in different regions, the net economic impact of aerosol-induced cooling is likely to be small at the global scale. However, these results suggest that the cooling effects of anthropogenic aerosols benefit developing tropical economies while harming developed high-latitude economies, and thus the temperature effects of past aerosol emissions have probably diminished global economic inequality.

Solar geoengineering by deliberate injection of sulfate aerosols in the stratosphere is one of the proposed options to counter anthropogenic climate warming. In this study, we focus on the effect of a specific microphysical property of sulfate aerosols in the stratosphere: hygroscopic growth-the tendency of particles to grow by accumulating water. We show that stratospheric sulfate aerosols, for a given mass of sulfates, cause more cooling when prescribed at the lower levels of the stratosphere because of hygroscopic growth. The larger relative humidity in the lower stratosphere causes an increase in the aerosol size through hygroscopic growth that leads to a larger scattering efficiency. In our study, hygroscopic growth provides an additional cooling of 23% (0.7 K) when 20 Mt-SO4 of sulfate aerosols, an amount that approximately offsets the warming due to a doubling of CO2, are prescribed at 100 hPa. The hygroscopic effect becomes weaker at higher levels as relative humidity decreases with height. Hygroscopic growth also leads to secondary effects such as an increase in near-infrared shortwave absorption by the aerosols that causes a decrease in high clouds and an increase in stratospheric water vapor. The altitude dependence of the effects of hygroscopic growth is opposite to that of sedimentation effects or the fast adjustment effects due to aerosol-induced warming identified in a recent study.

Hypoxia, a condition of low dissolved oxygen concentration, is a widespread problem in marine and freshwater ecosystems. To date, prevention and mitigation of hypoxia has centered on nutrient reduction to prevent eutrophication. However, nutrient reduction is often slow and sometimes insufficient to remedy hypoxia. We investigate the utility of a complementary strategy of pumping oxygenated surface water to depth, termed induced downwelling, as a technique to remedy hypoxia in the bottom water of marine and freshwater ecosystems. We introduce simple energy-based models and apply them to depth profiles in hypoxic estuaries, lakes, and freshwater reservoirs. Our models indicate that induced downwelling may be similar to 3 to 10(2) times more efficient than bubbling air, and 10(4) to 10(6) times more efficient than fountain aerators, at oxygenating hypoxic bottom waters. A proof-of-concept downwelling field experiment highlighted potential advantages and shortcomings. We estimate that regional-scale downwelling for continual hypoxia avoidance would require 0.4 to 4 megawatts per cubic kilometer of water (depending on local conditions), or 50 to 500 US dollars per hour per cubic kilometer of water (assuming 125 USD MWh(-1) of electricity). Many potential side effects of downwelling are discussed, each of which would need to be explored and assessed before implementation. Downwelling does not replace nutrient management strategies, but under some circumstances may provide an efficient means to augment these strategies. (C) 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Induced energy-saving efficiency improvements strongly influence energy use and climate change. This mechanism has previously been studied by bottomup methods in models, but the effect is debatable because of lack of empirical data needed to calibrate model parameters. We provide a top-down calibration of the relation between historical rates of various efficiency changes and energy's share of costs. To do this, we develop a modification of Solow's model of economic productivity. We find that a 1% rise in energy cost share increases energy-use efficiency by about 1.2% in the following 20 years, a higher gain compared to previous bottom-up estimates. When we incorporate this relationship into an integrated assessment model, we find that carbon prices save up to 30% more energy by 2120, relative to model configurations without the inducing mechanism. A carbon tax induces energy-saving efficiency improvements and could therefore be a more effective mitigation tool than previously recognized.

Understanding the extent to which laboratory findings of low pH on marine organisms can be extrapolated to the natural environment is key toward making better projections about the impacts of global change on marine ecosystems. We simultaneously exposed larvae of the sea urchin Arbacia lixula to ocean acidification in laboratory and natural CO2 vents and assessed the arm growth response as a proxy of net calcification. Populations of embryos were simultaneously placed at both control and volcanic CO2 vent sites in Ischia (Italy), with a parallel group maintained in the laboratory in control and low pH treatments corresponding to the mean pH levels of the field sites. As expected, larvae grown at constant low pH (pH(T) 7.8) in the laboratory exhibited reduced arm growth, but counter to expectations, the larvae that developed at the low pH vent site (pH(T) 7.33-7.99) had the longest arms. The larvae at the control field site (pH(T) 7.87-7.99) grew at a similar rate to laboratory controls. Salinity, temperature, oxygen and flow regimes were comparable between control and vent sites; however, chlorophyll a levels and particulate organic carbon were higher at the vent site than at the control field site. This increased food availability may have modulated the effects of low pH, creating an opposite calcification response in the laboratory from that in the field. Divergent responses of the same larval populations developing in laboratory and field environments show the importance of considering larval phenotypic plasticity and the complex interactions among decreased pH, food availability and larval responses. (C) 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.