Microbial activity mediates the fluxes of greenhouse gases. However, in the global models of the marine and terrestrial biospheres used for climate change projections, typically only photosynthetic microbial activity is resolved mechanistically. To move forward, we argue that global biogeochemical models need a theoretically grounded framework with which to constrain parameterizations of diverse microbial metabolisms. Here, we explain how the key redox chemistry underlying metabolisms provides a path towards this goal. Using this first-principles approach, the presence or absence of metabolic functional types emerges dynamically from ecological interactions, expanding model applicability to unobserved environments."Nothing is less real than realism. It is only by selection, by elimination, by emphasis, that we get at the real meaning of things." -Georgia O'Keefe Marine microbial activities fuel biogeochemical cycles that impact the climate, but global models do not account for the myriad physiological processes that microbes perform. Here the authors argue for a model framework that reinterprets the ocean as physics coupled to biologically-driven redox chemistry.

Anaerobic microbial activity in the ocean causes losses of bioavailable nitrogen and emission of nitrous oxide to the atmosphere, but its predictability at global scales remains limited. Resource ratio theory suggests that anaerobic activity becomes sustainable when the ratio of oxygen to organic matter supply is below the ratio required by aerobic metabolisms. Here, we demonstrate the relevance of this framework at the global scale using three-dimensional ocean datasets, providing a new interpretation of existing observations. Evaluations of the location and extent of anoxic zones and a diagnostic rate of pelagic nitrogen loss are consistent with previous estimates. However, we demonstrate that a threshold based on substrate-supply fluxes is qualitatively different from a threshold based solely on the ambient oxygen concentration. This implies that use of the flux-based threshold in global biogeochemical models can result in different predictions of anaerobic activity and nitrogen loss.

Organic matter constitutes a key reservoir in global elemental cycles. However, our understanding of the dynamics of organic matter and its accumulation remains incomplete. Seemingly disparate hypotheses have been proposed to explain organic matter accumulation: the slow degradation of intrinsically recalcitrant substrates, the depletion to concentrations that inhibit microbial consumption, and a dependency on the consumption capabilities of nearby microbial populations. Here, using a mechanistic model, we develop a theoretical framework that explains how organic matter predictably accumulates in natural environments due to biochemical, ecological, and environmental factors. Our framework subsumes the previous hypotheses. Changes in the microbial community or the environment can move a class of organic matter from a state of functional recalcitrance to a state of depletion by microbial consumers. The model explains the vertical profile of dissolved organic carbon in the ocean and connects microbial activity at subannual timescales to organic matter turnover at millennial timescales. The threshold behavior of the model implies that organic matter accumulation may respond nonlinearly to changes in temperature and other factors, providing hypotheses for the observed correlations between organic carbon reservoirs and temperature in past earth climates.

Prochlorococcus is both the smallest and numerically most abundant photosynthesizing organism on the planet. While thriving in the warm oligotrophic gyres, Prochlorococcus concentrations drop rapidly in higher-latitude regions. Transect data from the North Pacific show the collapse occurring at a wide range of temperatures and latitudes (temperature is often hypothesized to cause this shift), suggesting an ecological mechanism may be at play. An often used size-based theory of phytoplankton community structure that has been incorporated into computational models correctly predicts the dominance of Prochlorococcus in the gyres, and the relative dominance of larger cells at high latitudes. However, both theory and computational models fail to explain the poleward collapse. When heterotrophic bacteria and predators that prey nonspecifically on both Prochlorococcus and bacteria are included in the theoretical framework, the collapse of Prochlorococcus occurs with increasing nutrient supplies. The poleward collapse of Prochlorococcus populations then naturally emerges when this mechanism of "shared predation" is implemented in a complex global ecosystem model. Additionally, the theory correctly predicts trends in both the abundance and mean size of the heterotrophic bacteria. These results suggest that ecological controls need to be considered to understand the biogeography of Prochlorococcus and predict its changes under future ocean conditions. Indirect interactions within a microbial network can be essential in setting community structure.

Micro-scale microbial community dynamics can substantially alter the fate of sinking particulates in the ocean thus playing a key role in setting the vertical flux of particulate carbon in the ocean.

Anthropogenic habitat loss and climate change are reducing species' geographic ranges, increasing extinction risk and losses of species' genetic diversity. Although preserving genetic diversity is key to maintaining species' adaptability, we lack predictive tools and global estimates of genetic diversity loss across ecosystems. We introduce a mathematical framework that bridges biodiversity theory and population genetics to understand the loss of naturally occurring DNA mutations with decreasing habitat. By analyzing genomic variation of 10,095 georeferenced individuals from 20 plant and animal species, we show that genome-wide diversity follows a mutations-area relationship power law with geographic area, which can predict genetic diversity loss from local population extinctions. We estimate that more than 10% of genetic diversity may already be lost for many threatened and nonthreatened species, surpassing the United Nations' post-2020 targets for genetic preservation.

Ecological communities exhibit regular shifts in structure along environmental gradients, but it has proved difficult to dissect the mechanisms by which environmental conditions determine the relative success of species. Functional traits may provide a link between environmental drivers and mechanisms of community membership, but this has not been well tested for phytoplankton, which dominate primary production in many aquatic ecosystems. Here we test whether functional traits of phytoplankton can explain how species respond to gradients of light and phosphorus across U.S. lakes. We find that traits related to light utilization and maximum growth rate can predict species' differential responses to the relative availability of these resources. These results show that laboratory-measured traits are predictive of species' performance under natural conditions, that functional traits provide a mechanistic foundation for community ecology, and that variation in community structure is predictable in spite of the complexity of ecological communities.

Microalgae represent one of the most promising groups of candidate organisms for replacing fossil fuels with contemporary primary production as a renewable source of energy. Algae can produce many times more biomass per unit area than terrestrial crop plants, easing the competing demands for land with food crops and native ecosystems. However, several aspects of algal biology present unique challenges to the industrial-scale aquaculture of photosynthetic microorganisms. These include high susceptibility to invading aquatic consumers and weeds, as well as prodigious requirements for nutrients that may compete with the fertiliser demands of other crops. Most research on algal biofuel technologies approaches these problems from a cellular or genetic perspective, attempting either to engineer or select algal strains with particular traits. However, inherent functional trade-offs may limit the capacity of genetic selection or synthetic biology to simultaneously optimise multiple functional traits for biofuel productivity and resilience. We argue that a community engineering approach that manages microalgal diversity, species composition and environmental conditions may lead to more robust and productive biofuel ecosystems. We review evidence for trade-offs, challenges and opportunities in algal biofuel cultivation with a goal of guiding research towards intensifying bioenergy production using established principles of community and ecosystem ecology.