Carbon fluxes on coral reefs (net community production and net community calcification) aggregate the collective activity of all coral reef community members. This integrated approach provides powerful community-level insights, but is unable to resolve the finer-scale contributions of different reef functional groups to the community-scale rates. Tools are required to disaggregate the community-scale approaches and evaluate the performance of co-existing reef functional groups. Such assessments are necessary to improve forecasts of coral reef responses to global and local environmental change. We present results from a coral reef field study on One Tree Island reef in the Great Barrier Reef, off northeastern Australia, in September-October 2016 where we combined observations of total alkalinity, dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), and the stable isotopic composition of dissolved inorganic carbon (delta C-13(DIC)) to estimate carbon isotopic fractionation during organicmatter formation. Portions of the reef with greater abundance of non-calcifying algae fractionated DIC similar to 5 parts per thousand more (stronger preference for C-12) during organic metabolism than did portions of the reef with a greater abundance of calcifiers. These results were consistent across a wide range of assumed isotopic fractionation factors for net calcification. We attribute the observed differences in carbon isotopic fractionation to the metabolic activities of the ecological community underlying each section of the reef, rather than to environmental factors such as light availability or water temperature. The patterns in carbon isotopic fractionation were generally consistent with inferred ratios of calcification to primary production in each reef zone, giving further confidence to our inference that differences in carbon isotopic fractionation may be related to differences in the ecological community on small spatial scales.

Ocean acidification threatens many marine organisms, especially marine calcifiers. The only global-scale solution to ocean acidification remains rapid reduction in CO2 emissions. Nevertheless, interest in localized mitigation strategies has grown rapidly because of the recognized threat ocean acidification imposes on natural communities, including ones important to humans. Protection of seagrass meadows has been considered as a possible approach for localized mitigation of ocean acidification due to their large standing stocks of organic carbon and high productivity. Yet much work remains to constrain the magnitudes and timescales of potential buffering effects from seagrasses. We developed a biogeochemical box model to better understand the potential for a temperate seagrass meadow to locally mitigate the effects of ocean acidification. Then we parameterized the model using data from Tomales Bay, an inlet on the coast of California, USA which supports a major oyster farming industry. We conducted a series of month-long model simulations to characterize processes that occur during summer and winter. We found that average pH in the seagrass meadows was typically within 0.04 units of the pH of the primary source waters into the meadow, although we did find occasional periods (hours) when seagrass metabolism may modify the pH by up to +/- 0.2 units. Tidal phasing relative to the diel cycle modulates localized pH buffering within the seagrass meadow such that maximum buffering occurs during periods of the year with midday low tides. Our model results suggest that seagrass metabolism in Tomales Bay would not provide long-term ocean acidification mitigation. However, we emphasize that our model results may not hold in meadows where assumptions about depth-averaged net production and seawater residence time within the seagrass meadow differ from our model assumptions. Our modeling approach provides a framework that is easily adaptable to other seagrass meadows in order to evaluate the extent of their individual buffering capacities. Regardless of their ability to buffer ocean acidification, seagrass meadows maintain many critically important ecosystem goods and services that will be increasingly important as humans increasingly affect coastal ecosystems.

The distribution of anthropogenic aerosols' climate effects depends on the geographic distribution of the aerosols themselves. Yet many scientific and policy discussions ignore the role of emission location when evaluating aerosols' climate impacts. Here, we present new climate model results demonstrating divergent climate responses to a fixed amount and composition of aerosol-emulating China's present-day emissions-emitted from 8 key geopolitical regions. The aerosols' global-mean cooling effect is fourteen times greater when emitted from the highest impact emitting region (Western Europe) than from the lowest (India). Further, radiative forcing, a widely used climate response proxy, fails as an effective predictor of global-mean cooling for national-scale aerosol emissions in our simulations; global-mean forcing-to-cooling efficacy differs fivefold depending on emitting region. This suggests that climate accounting should differentiate between aerosols emitted from different countries and that aerosol emissions' evolving geographic distribution will impact the global-scale magnitude and spatial distribution of climate change.

Arctic amplification is a consequence of surface albedo, cloud, and temperature feedbacks, as well as poleward oceanic and atmospheric heat transport. However, the relative impact of changes in sea surface temperature (SST) patterns and ocean heat flux sourced from different regions on Arctic temperatures are not well constrained. We modify ocean-to-atmosphere heat fluxes in the North Pacific and North Atlantic in a climate model to determine the sensitivity of Arctic temperatures to zonal heterogeneities in northern hemisphere SST patterns. Both positive and negative ocean heat flux perturbations from the North Pacific result in greater global and Arctic surface air temperature anomalies than equivalent magnitude perturbations from the North Atlantic; a response we primarily attribute to greater moisture flux from the subpolar extratropics to Arctic. Enhanced poleward latent heat and moisture transport drive sea-ice retreat and low-cloud formation in the Arctic, amplifying Arctic surface warming through the ice-albedo feedback and infrared warming effect of low clouds. Our results imply that global climate sensitivity may be dependent on patterns of ocean heat flux in the northern hemisphere.

The social cost of carbon (SCC) is a commonly employed metric of the expected economic damages from carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Although useful in an optimal policy context, a world-level approach obscures the heterogeneous geography of climate damage and vast differences in country-level contributions to the global SCC, as well as climate and socio-economic uncertainties, which are larger at the regional level. Here we estimate country-level contributions to the SCC using recent climate model projections, empirical climate-driven economic damage estimations and socio-economic projections. Central specifications show high global SCC values (median, US$417 per tonne of CO2 (tCO(2)); 66% confidence intervals, US$177-805 per tCO(2)) and a country-level SCC that is unequally distributed. However, the relative ranking of countries is robust to different specifications: countries that incur large fractions of the global cost consistently include India, China, Saudi Arabia and the United States.

We examine the potential for climate change to impact fertility via adaptations in human behavior. We start by discussing a wide range of economic channels through which climate change might impact fertility, including sectoral reallocation, the gender wage gap, longevity, and child mortality. Then, we build a quantitative model that combines standard economic-demographic theory with existing estimates of the economic consequences of climate change. In the model, increases in global temperature affect agricultural and non-agricultural sectors differently. Near the equator, where many poor countries are located, climate change has a larger negative effect on agriculture. The resulting scarcity in agricultural goods acts as a force towards higher agricultural prices and wages, leading to a labor reallocation into this sector. Since agriculture makes less use of skilled labor, climate damage decreases the return to acquiring skills, inducing parents to invest less resources in the education of each child and to increase fertility. These patterns are reversed at higher latitudes, suggesting that climate change may exacerbate inequities by reducing fertility and increasing education in richer northern countries, while increasing fertility and reducing education in poorer tropical countries. While the model only examines the role of one mechanism, it suggests that climate change could have an impact on fertility, indicating the need for future work on this important topic.

Geoengineering has been proposed as a backup approach to rapidly cool the Earth and avoid damages associated with anthropogenic climate change. In this study, we use the NCAR Community Earth System Model to conduct a series of slab-ocean and prescribed sea surface temperature simulations to investigate the climate response to three proposed radiation management geoengineering schemes: stratospheric aerosol increase (SAI), marine cloud brightening (MCB), and cirrus cloud thinning (CCT). Our simulations show that different amounts of radiative forcing are needed for these three schemes to compensate global mean warming induced by a doubling of atmospheric CO2. With radiative forcing defined in terms of top-of-atmosphere energy imbalances in prescribed sea surface temperature simulations with land temperature adjustments, radiative forcing efficacy for SAI is about 15% smaller than that of CO2, and the efficacy for MCB and CCNCCT is about 10% larger than that of CO2. In our simulations, different forcing efficacies are associated with different feedback processes for these forcing agents. Also, these geoengineering schemes produce different land-ocean temperature change contrasts. The apparent hydrological sensitivity, that is, change in equilibrium global mean precipitation per degree of equilibrium temperature change, differs substantially between CO2, SAI, MCB, and CCNCCT forcings, which is mainly a result of different precipitation responses during fast adjustment. After removing the component of fast adjustment, the northward movement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone in response to these forcing agents is tightly related with changes in the interhemispheric energy exchange and hemispheric temperature gradient.

Net anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) must approach zero by mid-century (2050) in order to stabilize the global mean temperature at the level targeted by international efforts(1-5). Yet continued expansion of fossil-fuel-burning energy infrastructure implies already 'committed' future CO2 emissions(6-13). Here we use detailed datasets of existing fossil-fuel energy infrastructure in 2018 to estimate regional and sectoral patterns of committed CO2 emissions, the sensitivity of such emissions to assumed operating lifetimes and schedules, and the economic value of the associated infrastructure. We estimate that, if operated as historically, existing infrastructure will cumulatively emit about 658 gigatonnes of CO2 (with a range of 226 to 1,479 gigatonnes CO2, depending on the lifetimes and utilization rates assumed). More than half of these emissions are predicted to come from the electricity sector; infrastructure in China, the USA and the 28 member states of the European Union represents approximately 41 per cent, 9 per cent and 7 per cent of the total, respectively. If built, proposed power plants (planned, permitted or under construction) would emit roughly an extra 188 (range 37-427) gigatonnes CO2. Committed emissions from existing and proposed energy infrastructure (about 846 gigatonnes CO2) thus represent more than the entire carbon budget that remains if mean warming is to be limited to 1.5 degrees Celsius (degrees C) with a probability of 66 to 50 per cent (420-580 gigatonnes CO2)(5), and perhaps two-thirds of the remaining carbon budget if mean warming is to be limited to less than 2 degrees C (1,170-1,500 gigatonnes CO2)(5). The remaining carbon budget estimates are varied and nuanced(14,15), and depend on the climate target and the availability of large-scale negative emissions(16). Nevertheless, our estimates suggest that little or no new CO2-emitting infrastructure can be commissioned, and that existing infrastructure may need to be retired early (or be retrofitted with carbon capture and storage technology) in order to meet the Paris Agreement climate goals(17). Given the asset value per tonne of committed emissions, we suggest that the most cost-effective premature infrastructure retirements will be in the electricity and industry sectors, if non-emitting alternatives are available and affordable(4,18).

Microplastics are emerging contaminants in the marine environment. They enter the ocean in a variety of sizes and shapes, with plastic microfiber being the prevalent form in seawater and in the guts of biota. Most of the laboratory experiments on microplastics has been performed with spheres, so knowledge on the interactions of microfibers and marine organisms is limited. In this study we examined the ingestion of microfibers by the sea anemone Aiptasia pallida using three different types of polymers: nylon, polyester and polypropylene. The polymers were offered to both symbiotic (with algal symbionts) and bleached (without algal symbionts) anemones. The polymers were introduced either alone or mixed with brine shrimp homogenate. We observed a higher percentage of nylon ingestion compared to the other polymers when plastic was offered in the absence of shrimp. In contrast, we observed over 80% of the anemones taking up all types of polymers when the plastics were offered in the presence of shrimp. Retention time differed significantly between symbiotic and bleached anemones with faster egestion in symbiotic anemones. Our results suggest that ingestion of microfibers by sea anemones is dependent both on the type of polymers and on the presence of chemical cues of prey in seawater. The decreased ability of bleached anemones to reject plastic microfiber indicates that the susceptibility of anthozoans to plastic pollution is exacerbated by previous exposure to other stressors. This is particularly concerning given that coral reef ecosystems are facing increases in the frequency and intensity of bleaching events due to ocean warming. (C) 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.