The potential for adaptive evolution to enable species persistence under a changing climate is one of the most important questions for understanding impacts of future climate change. Climate adaptation may be particularly likely for short-lived ectotherms, including many pest, pathogen, and vector species. For these taxa, estimating climate adaptive potential is critical for accurate predictive modeling and public health preparedness. Here, we demonstrate how a simple theoretical framework used in conservation biology-evolutionary rescue models-can be used to investigate the potential for climate adaptation in these taxa, using mosquito thermal adaptation as a focal case. Synthesizing current evidence, we find that short mosquito generation times, high population growth rates, and strong temperature-imposed selection favor thermal adaptation. However, knowledge gaps about the extent of phenotypic and genotypic variation in thermal tolerance within mosquito populations, the environmental sensitivity of selection, and the role of phenotypic plasticity constrain our ability to make more precise estimates. We describe how common garden and selection experiments can be used to fill these data gaps. Lastly, we investigate the consequences of mosquito climate adaptation on disease transmission using Aedes aegypti-transmitted dengue virus in Northern Brazil as a case study. The approach outlined here can be applied to any disease vector or pest species and type of environmental change.

GLO-Bot data for analysis For both the six accessions (HL-##) and the diversity panel (GWA#) we provide: The full inverted images input to GLO-RIAv2 6accessions_images.zip and GWA#.zip Filesfor detailed information about the accessions and ID numbers 6accessions-rhizotrons.csv and diversiry-rhizotrons.csv The raw root data from GLO-RIAv2 ####-all-root-data-[local/global/roi].csv for the full root system analysis ####-tip-root-data-[local/global/roi].csv for the per day tip tracking analysis The calculated traits 6accessions-all_traits.csv and diversity-calculated_traits.csv The fitted traits (diversity only) diversity-bv_fitted_phenotypes.csv Copyright: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Open Access

Many organisms evolved strategies to survive desiccation. Plant seeds protect dehydrated embryos from various stressors and can lay dormant for millennia. Hydration is the key trigger to initiate germination, but themechanism by which seeds sense water remains unresolved. Weidentified an uncharacterized Arabidopsis thaliana prion-like protein we named FLOE1, which phase separates upon hydration and allows the embryo to sense water stress. We demonstrate that biophysical states of FLOE1 condensates modulate its biological function in vivo in suppressing seed germination under unfavorable environments. We find intragenic, intraspecific, and interspecific natural variation in FLOE1 expression and phase separation and show that intragenic variation is associated with adaptive germination strategies in natural populations. This combination of molecular, organismal, and ecological studies uncovers FLOE1 as a tunable environmental sensor with direct implications for the design of drought-resistant crops, in the face of climate change.

Background and Aims Determining within-species large-scale variation in phenotypic traits is central to elucidate the drivers of species' ranges. Intraspecific comparisons offer the opportunity to understand how trade-offs and biogeographical history constrain adaptation to contrasted environmental conditions. Here we test whether functional traits, ecological strategies from the CSR scheme and phenotypic plasticity in response to abiotic stress vary along a latitudinal or a center- margins gradient within the native range of Arabidopsis thaliana. Methods We experimentally examined the phenotypic outcomes of plant adaptation at the center and margins of its geographic range using 30 accessions from southern, central and northern Europe. We characterized the variation of traits related to stress tolerance, resource use, colonization ability, CSR strategy scores, survival and fecundity in response to high temperature (34 degrees C) or frost (- 6 degrees C), combined with a water deficit treatment. Key Results We found evidence for both a latitudinal and a center-margins differentiation for the traits under scrutiny. Age at maturity, leaf dry matter content, specific leaf area and leaf nitrogen content varied along a latitudinal gradient. Northern accessions presented a greater survival to stress than central and southern accessions. Leaf area, C-scores, R-scores and fruit number followed a center-margins differentiation. Central accessions displayed a higher phenotypic plasticity than northern and southern accessions for most studied traits. Conclusions Traits related to an acquisitive/conservative resource-use trade-off followed a latitudinal gradient. Traits associated with a competition/colonization trade-off differentiated along the historic colonization of the distribution range and then followed a center-margins differentiation. Our findings pinpoint the need to consider the joint effect of evolutionary history and environmental factors when examining phenotypic variation across the distribution range of a species.

Since the first half of the twentieth century, evolutionary theory has been dominated by the idea that mutations occur randomly with respect to their consequences(1). Here we test this assumption with large surveys of de novo mutations in the plant Arabidopsis thaliana. In contrast to expectations, we find that mutations occur less often in functionally constrained regions of the genome-mutation frequency is reduced by half inside gene bodies and by two-thirds in essential genes. With independent genomic mutation datasets, including from the largest Arabidopsis mutation accumulation experiment conducted to date, we demonstrate that epigenomic and physical features explain over 90% of variance in the genome-wide pattern of mutation bias surrounding genes. Observed mutation frequencies around genes in turn accurately predict patterns of genetic polymorphisms in natural Arabidopsis accessions (r = 0.96). That mutation bias is the primary force behind patterns of sequence evolution around genes in natural accessions is supported by analyses of allele frequencies. Finally, we find that genes subject to stronger purifying selection have a lower mutation rate. We conclude that epigenome-associated mutation bias2 reduces the occurrence of deleterious mutations in Arabidopsis, challenging the prevailing paradigm that mutation is a directionless force in evolution.

The pervasive loss of biodiversity in the Anthropocene necessitates rapid assessments of ecosystems to understand how they will respond to anthropogenic environmental change. Many studies have sought to describe the adaptive capacity (AC) of individual species, a measure that encompasses a species' ability to respond and adapt to change. Only those adaptive mechanisms that can be used over the next few decades (e.g. via novel interactions, behavioural changes, hybridization, migration, etc.) are relevant to the timescale set by the rapid changes of the Anthropocene. The impacts of species loss cascade through ecosystems, yet few studies integrate the capacity of ecological networks to adapt to change with the ACs of its species. Here, we discuss three ecosystems and how their ecological networks impact the AC of species and vice versa. A more holistic perspective that considers the AC of species with respect to their ecological interactions and functions will provide more predictive power and a deeper understanding of what factors are most important to a species' survival. We contend that the AC of a species, combined with its role in ecosystem function and stability, must guide decisions in assigning 'risk' and triaging biodiversity loss in the Anthropocene.This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological complexity and the biosphere: the next 30 years'.

Irrigated agriculture accounts for similar to 90% of anthropogenic freshwater consumption, is deployed on 22% of cultivated land, and provides 40% of global food production. Expanding irrigation onto currently underperforming rainfed croplands is crucial to meet future global food demand without further agricultural expansion and associated encroachment of natural ecosystems. Establishing irrigation is also a potential climate adaptation solution to alleviate heat- and water-stress to crops and reduce climate variability and extremes. Despite irrigation being one of the land management practices with the largest environmental and hydroclimatic impacts, the role of irrigation to adapt agriculture to climate change and achieve global sustainability goals has just started to be quantified. This study reviews biophysical opportunities and feedbacks of 'sustainable irrigation'. I describe the concept of sustainable irrigation expansion-where there are opportunities to increase agricultural productivity over currently water-limited rainfed croplands by adopting irrigation practices that do not deplete freshwater stocks and impair aquatic ecosystems. Expanding sustainable irrigation may avert agricultural expansion but create additional externalities that are often neglected. This review highlights major gaps in the analysis and understanding on the role of sustainable irrigation expansion to adapt agriculture to climate change. This study reviews the implications of a potential sustainable irrigation expansion on (a) global food security, (b) hydroclimatic conditions, (c) water quality, (d) soil salinization, (e) water storage infrastructure, and (f) energy use. These implications help to explain the challenges of achieving sustainability in irrigated agriculture and thus also point toward solutions and future research needs.

Sustainable irrigation expansion over water limited croplands is an important measure to enhance agricultural yields and increase the resilience of crop production to global warming. While existing global assessments of irrigation expansion mainly illustrate the biophysical potential for irrigation, socioeconomic factors such as weak governance or low income, that demonstrably impede the successful implementation of sustainable irrigation, remain largely underexplored. Here we provide five scenarios of sustainable irrigation deployment in the 21st century integrated into the framework of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, which account for biophysical irrigation limits and socioeconomic constraints. We find that the potential for sustainable irrigation expansion implied by biophysical limits alone is considerably reduced when socioeconomic factors are considered. Even under an optimistic scenario of socio-economic development, we find that additional calories produced via sustainable irrigation by 2100 might reach only half of the maximum biophysical potential. Regions with currently modest socioeconomic development such as Sub-Saharan Africa are found to have the highest potential for improvements. In a scenario of sustainable development, Sub-Saharan Africa would be able to almost double irrigated food production and feed an additional 70 million people compared to 2020, whereas in a scenario where regional rivalry prevails, this potential would be halved. Increasing sustainable irrigation will be key for countries to meet the projected food demands, tackle malnutrition and rural poverty in the context of increasing impacts of anthropogenic climate change on food systems. Our results suggest that improving governance levels for example through enhancing the effectiveness of institutions will constitute an important leverage to increase adaptive capacity in the agricultural sector.

Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is a carbon dioxide removal (CDR) solution necessary to achieve net-zero-carbon-emissions goals. While the BECCS potential from large industrial emitters has been quantified, the BECCS potential of small emitters, such as biogas facilities, has not been investigated. Moreover, most BECCS solutions rely on the expected availability of large geological storage capacity for future CDR implementation, although the deployment of CO2 transport and storage supply chains is still a barrier for geological carbon storage ambitions. An alternative opportunity for permanent sequestration of CO2 is concrete, in which captured CO2 can be permanently fixed through carbon dioxide mineralization technologies. We describe and discuss this solution by quantifying the potential of a European bioenergy with carbon capture, utilization, and storage (BECCUS) supply chain, which relies on biogenic CO2 from biogas facilities as a CO2 source, and on carbon dioxide mineralization in concrete as a permanent CO2 sink. This solution is available today, can be adopted seamlessly, and does not need economies of scale for its deployment. We find that European biogas facilities produce 24 Mtons of biogenic CO2 per year, of which 4 Mtons of CO2 per year are emitted from facilities already upgrading biogas into bio-methane. We estimate that carbon dioxide mineralization in recycled concrete aggregates in Europe could permanently store up to 8 Mtons of CO2 per year. Despite the limited storage potential, BECCUS supply chains would reduce CO2 transportation distance and system complexity compared to BECCS supply chains, and would result in a marketable product, namely concrete. Overall, carbon dioxide mineralization in recycled concrete aggregates combines carbon utilization with permanent sequestration, hence contributing to carbon-neutrality goals.

The Carnegie Planet Finder Spectrograph is being constructed for use at the Magellan Telescopes at Las Campanas Observatory in Chile. Its primary scientific objective is the detection of extrasolar planets through monitoring of stellar radial velocity variations. The spectrograph is being optimized for high precision measurement of these velocities with a resolution goal of 1 m s(-1). The optical design includes all spherical, standard optical glass and calcium fluoride lenses that function as both camera and collimator in a double-pass configuration. A prism cross-disperser is also used in double-pass and provides a minimum order separation of 4.0 arcsec. An R4 echelle grating is illuminated near true Littrow and provides complete wavelength coverage between 390 nm and 620 nm. Spectral resolution is 38,000 when using a 1 arcsec slit, although slit widths as small as 0.2 arcsec are available. An iodine cell is used to superimpose well-defined absorption features onto spectra to serve as a fiducial wavelength scale, and a thorium argon lamp is available for traditional wavelength calibrations. The spectrograph is currently under construction and is scheduled for commissioning in the second quarter of 2007.